Saturday, January 10, 2009

NFL Playoff Predictions, Divisional Round

I'm going to go with a different format in this week's predictions. Sometimes, I like to look at each game individually, like last week. But today, I want to take a look at the games as a whole.

The reason for this is, I'm really bothered by this week's games because I think the picks are way too obvious. I mean, doesn't it seem like we're destined for conference championship games of New York vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore? The first three teams seem like solid favorites, and Baltimore is the obvious upset pick because Tennessee seems like such a lame No. 1 seed.

But this bothers me. Way too easy and obvious. Nothing happens that easily. So, I think we'll see something crazy.

First, I'm going to switch on the Baltimore vs. Tennessee pick. It's just such an easy upset pick that I think it won't happen. The obvious upsets are usually the ones that don't happen. Plus, you do have to consider that the Ravens have a rookie QB starting, and historically, it just doesn't work. Baltimore won that game against Miami because of their defense. Flacco actually had a poor game -- he only completed nine of 23 passes. I think at some point against Tennessee, he's going to make a big mistake from which the Ravens can't recover.
Then, looking at the rest of the games, it seems like all the home teams should win without much trouble. But I really think we're going to see a really surprising result in one of these games, just like last year when the Giants beat the No. 1 seed Cowboys. Did anyone see that coming?

Thus, I'm going to go with the craziest pick, I'm just feeling it. I'm going with Arizona over Carolina. I'm not sure if anyone outside the state of Arizona thinks the Cardinals even have a shot against the Panthers, and really with good reason. Arizona has been dreadful in the eastern time zone, going 0-5, including a loss to the Panthers early in the season. The Panthers were also hot at the end of the season while the Cardinals floundered horribly. Everything points against the Cardinals, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I might be horribly off on this one, maybe everything will go plan and the Panthers will lose by 30, but I just see Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense putting up a lot of early points and forcing the Panthers to get away from their strength -- the running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Picks:
Tennessee 9, Baltimore 3 (That's right, no touchdowns)
Arizona 38, Carolina 27
NY Giants 23, Philadelphia 20, OT
Pittsburgh 18, San Diego 10 (See what I did there?)

Overall record: 2-2

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Love the PIT/SD score, Jared.