Saturday, January 3, 2009

NFL Playoff Picks, Wild Card Round, Part 2

As I'm watching the Chargers commit a bunch of turnovers that will probably make me 0-2 today, I guess I'll try to redeem myself with these picks:

BALTIMORE AT MIAMI
I've liked Baltimore in this game from the very beginning, but the Falcons' loss to the Cardinals makes me want to rethink the prediction because Baltimore, just like Atlanta, has a rookie QB starting in a playoff game: Joe Flacco. The difference is that Baltimore has a much better defense than Atlanta does. I really liked the way the Ravens responded after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Previous Ravens teams may have fallen apart after such an emotional loss, but this one kept it together to make the playoffs. Miami just strikes me as a lame team -- I really don't know how they managed to go 11-5. In fact, the Dolphins are rated 16th (!) in the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings, a personal favorite of mine. I expect the Ravens to keep the Wildcat at bay, just like they did earlier this season in a win over Miami, and Flacco won't be asked to do too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 16, Miami 6

PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA
Is there more of a tease than the Philadelphia Eagles this year? It seems like you can say that about every year. Just when you think they might be one of the elite teams in the NFL (wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and NY Giants) they absolutely lay an egg (tie against Cincinnati, blowout against Baltimore, late-season loss to Washington). Now that the Eagles blew out Dallas, I think it's time for them to disappoint us all yet again. I really think Minnesota is going to shut down their offense in this game. The Eagles tend to have the most trouble when Andy Reid decides to get super pass-happy, and I just think there's a huge chance of that happening in this game. Minnesota has the league's top run defense, and I think Brian Westbrook will be rendered virtually ineffective, leading McNabb to throw about 40 passes while being hounded by Jared Allen the whole time. A low-scoring game allows the Vikings to concentrate on getting the ball to Adrian Peterson and out of Tarvaris Jackson's hands. I think Peterson runs for about 150 yards in his playoff debut, and then we'll be talking afterwards about whether McNabb and/or Reid will be coming back to Philly next year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 10

No comments: