My NCAA Tournament Champion

My champion is Gonzaga.

Yes, Gonzaga. The 4-seed from the puny West Coast Conference that lost by about 8,000 points to Memphis at home a few months ago. That Gonzaga.

That's who I'm putting my money on, and I believe you'll wish you had. I'm not perfect -- nobody is at this -- but I do have to say that I'm pretty good at this.

I've been filling out brackets for nine years. I fill out one bracket per year, that's it. I feel the picks should be genuine (I take this seriously). I've picked the champion correctly five times in nine years. Not perfect, but pretty damn good considering that in any given season there are usually at least four teams that are considered legitimate picks to win it all. Getting it right 25% of the time would be good. I've managed 55%, although I will concede that five out of nine is a small sample size.

Why Gonzaga? (That's probably what you wanted to get to anyway). Many reasons. For one, they would be the perfect champion to a chaotic season in which no team could stay No. 1 for more than a week it seemed. So of course, the champion would be a team from a small conference that never came close to No. 1. That's the subjective reason and actually the weakest argument (Why did I start with it again?).

I've been studying this for several years and there is certain criteria that almost all championship teams fit, and it's how I try to choose my champion every year. Let's take a look.

Championship teams score lots of points and average large margins of victory. In the last 20 years of the tournament, every single champion has averaged at least 76 points per game during the season and had an average victory margin of 10 points per game. Every single one. The Bulldogs easily meet these requirements by scoring 79 points per game and winning by an average of 18 points per game, second in the nation behind only North Carolina. (This qualifier, by the way, eliminates Louisville and Memphis).

Championship teams have lots of NBA talent. If you take a look at the past tournament champions, they all have players who are drafted in the NBA, usually multiple ones. And it's not just because of tournament performance -- these players are considered to be NBA-calibar before the draft. Gonzaga has Austin Daye, a player who will probably be a lottery pick at some point, along with Jeremy Pargo, a likely second round pick, and Josh Heytvelt, a likely second and possibly first round pick. (This qualifier makes it hard to pick Pitt. However, it makes me scared that I have Wake Forest going down so early because they probably have the most NBA talent).

Championship teams are big. I don't know who came up with this idea that guard play wins in the tournament, but whoever did is wrong. Size wins in the tournament. It's about the big men. Kansas had Darrell Arthur, Florida had Joakim Noah, North Carolina had Sean May (and notice how they beat an Illinois team based off guards), and UConn had Omeka Okafor. Sure, you need to have good guards too (You need good everything to win the title), but if I have a choice between being a guard-oriented team or having some big men who can score, give me the guys down low. Gonzaga has Daye and Heytvelt (both 6'11'') and is actually the seventh tallest team in the country.

Championship teams play defense. Really good defense. Actually, make that GREAT defense. It's time for a lessen in defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is a stat that measures how many points a team gives up per possession. The point is, regular statistics are tainted by pace. Teams who play at a faster face score more points, but also give up more points. Thus, although these teams give up more points per game, it doesn't mean their defense isn't as good as a slower-paced team that gives up less points. (By the way, adjusted defensive efficiency rankings can be found on http://www.kenpom.com/, a great great great site). The point is, teams who win championships are near the top of the rankings in adjusted (for schedule strength) defensive efficiency. Here are the national rankings for the past few champs: Kansas 1, Florida 12, Florida 5. Here's another even more remarkable fact: No team in the last five years ... none ... outside the Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency has made the Final Four (That includes George Mason). Several teams outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency have, so it has been less reliable at picking winners. (This whole thing, by the way, is bad news for Pitt and UNC, both outside the Top 25 in defensive efficiency). The past Gonzaga teams with Adam Morrison that flamed out early had defensive efficiency rankings in the 100s. This Gonzaga team is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency (While we're talking about efficiency, Gonzaga is also sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency, making them the only team in the Top 10 in both). By the way, if you want more conventional statistics, Gonzaga leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage defense.

Gonzaga also fits other qualifications of a championship team such as an experienced coach, having been to the tournament the previous year and not turning the ball over (sixth in the nation). Championship teams have traditionally come from the BCS conferences, but I'm willing to waive that after Memphis came one free throw away from winning the championship last year.

Now, the last time Gonzaga was featured in a prominent game, they were absolutely destroyed by Memphis ... at home. That loss made me wary of Gonzaga at first, but I'm starting to think that turned this team around. The Bulldogs haven't lost since then. I know it's a fairly weak schedule, but they've been blowing teams out, especially recently, winning their last three games by at least 25 points, including a win over Saint Mary's.

Have I convinced you yet? No? Yeah, I didn't figure. I gave it my best, but now all I can do is sit back and watch Gonzaga make a deep run.