Wow, it's such a beautiful day outside ... but I'm going to spend it in my living room watching the NFL Draft. That's America, baby.
The Steelers, of course, are picking at No. 32 this year, and I decided to offer some thoughts on what their top needs are heading into the draft.
1. Tackle -- Willie Colon is average at best and would probably make a better guard, and Max Starks, while decent, is still being overpaid with the franchise tag, and if the Steelers do draft a tackle, maybe they could let Starks go after this year. Or, at least they would have more leverage in negotiations. The depth isn't that great either, even though I always thought Trai Essex deserved more of a chance.
2. Defensive Line -- Whether it's a nose tackle or a defensive end, the Steelers could use both. The defensive line is getting old with none of the starters below 30 years old. They have had great production, but you have to be concerned that the dropoff could be coming soon. I think we saw it a little bit with Casey Hampton this year.
3. Cornerback -- The Steelers' cornerback situation is still pretty good, even with the loss of Bryant McFadden. William Gay is going to be a star, and they did sign Keiwan Ratliff, who ... didn't always start for the Bengals. Hmmmm. You still can never have enough corners and Deshea Townsend isn't getting younger.
Almost every mock draft I see has the Steelers taking a center in the first round, either Max Unger or Alex Mack. I don't buy it. The center position is actually really great this year (Eric Wood from Louisville is also a top option, A.Q. Shipley could be late-round steal), and I think the Steelers will address center later on in the draft. Plus, if the Steelers take a tackle in the first round, I think it could create a chain reaction that leads to Darnell Stapleton playing center, which is allegedly his best position.
If I had to make predictions on who the Steelers will draft, I will say they take UConn tackle William Beatty in the first round. He's a very solid prospect who does everything very well, but not necessarily anything great. He also has great character and just sounds like a Steelers guy. (By the way, UConn might have THREE! guys taken in the first round.) In the second round, I'm going to go with a little bit of a surprise and say they take defensive end Jarron Gilbert from San Jose State. I don't know much about the guy, but from my understanding, he's a prototypical 3-4 defensive end with a lot of skill, but sometimes takes some plays off. I don't think he'll be doing anything like that on the Steelers defense.
If the Steelers go cornerback in the first round, I really think they should take Alphonso Smith out of Wake Forest. The knock on him is a lack of size, but I have seen him dominate in some games, including an ACC championship game against Georgia Tech in which the Demon Deacons absolutely shut down Calvin Johnson. I think Smith is going to be a star.
If the Steelers hadn't already drafted Dennis Dixon last year, I would've liked to see them take a shot on Nate Davis from Ball State. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the best quarterback out of this draft because I'm not convinced that any of the first-round quarterbacks will be any good.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
NCAA Tournament Quick Predictions
Yes, I know the tournament has already started, but I figured I'd let you guys in on a few of my predictions based on the bracket I filled out.
Champion: Gonzaga
Final Four: Louisville, Memphis, Villanova, Gonzaga
Big first round upsets: Cleveland State over Wake Forest, North Dakota State over Kansas
Surprise Elite Eight runs: West Virginia and Arizona, both 6 seeds
Surprise Sweet 16 run: USC
Flaming out early: Oklahoma and Michigan State
Super huge upset that could happen, but I wasn't ballsy enough to straight up pick it: Morgan State over Oklahoma
Champion: Gonzaga
Final Four: Louisville, Memphis, Villanova, Gonzaga
Big first round upsets: Cleveland State over Wake Forest, North Dakota State over Kansas
Surprise Elite Eight runs: West Virginia and Arizona, both 6 seeds
Surprise Sweet 16 run: USC
Flaming out early: Oklahoma and Michigan State
Super huge upset that could happen, but I wasn't ballsy enough to straight up pick it: Morgan State over Oklahoma
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
My NCAA Tournament Champion
My champion is Gonzaga.
Yes, Gonzaga. The 4-seed from the puny West Coast Conference that lost by about 8,000 points to Memphis at home a few months ago. That Gonzaga.
That's who I'm putting my money on, and I believe you'll wish you had. I'm not perfect -- nobody is at this -- but I do have to say that I'm pretty good at this.
I've been filling out brackets for nine years. I fill out one bracket per year, that's it. I feel the picks should be genuine (I take this seriously). I've picked the champion correctly five times in nine years. Not perfect, but pretty damn good considering that in any given season there are usually at least four teams that are considered legitimate picks to win it all. Getting it right 25% of the time would be good. I've managed 55%, although I will concede that five out of nine is a small sample size.
Why Gonzaga? (That's probably what you wanted to get to anyway). Many reasons. For one, they would be the perfect champion to a chaotic season in which no team could stay No. 1 for more than a week it seemed. So of course, the champion would be a team from a small conference that never came close to No. 1. That's the subjective reason and actually the weakest argument (Why did I start with it again?).
I've been studying this for several years and there is certain criteria that almost all championship teams fit, and it's how I try to choose my champion every year. Let's take a look.
Championship teams score lots of points and average large margins of victory. In the last 20 years of the tournament, every single champion has averaged at least 76 points per game during the season and had an average victory margin of 10 points per game. Every single one. The Bulldogs easily meet these requirements by scoring 79 points per game and winning by an average of 18 points per game, second in the nation behind only North Carolina. (This qualifier, by the way, eliminates Louisville and Memphis).
Championship teams have lots of NBA talent. If you take a look at the past tournament champions, they all have players who are drafted in the NBA, usually multiple ones. And it's not just because of tournament performance -- these players are considered to be NBA-calibar before the draft. Gonzaga has Austin Daye, a player who will probably be a lottery pick at some point, along with Jeremy Pargo, a likely second round pick, and Josh Heytvelt, a likely second and possibly first round pick. (This qualifier makes it hard to pick Pitt. However, it makes me scared that I have Wake Forest going down so early because they probably have the most NBA talent).
Championship teams are big. I don't know who came up with this idea that guard play wins in the tournament, but whoever did is wrong. Size wins in the tournament. It's about the big men. Kansas had Darrell Arthur, Florida had Joakim Noah, North Carolina had Sean May (and notice how they beat an Illinois team based off guards), and UConn had Omeka Okafor. Sure, you need to have good guards too (You need good everything to win the title), but if I have a choice between being a guard-oriented team or having some big men who can score, give me the guys down low. Gonzaga has Daye and Heytvelt (both 6'11'') and is actually the seventh tallest team in the country.
Championship teams play defense. Really good defense. Actually, make that GREAT defense. It's time for a lessen in defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is a stat that measures how many points a team gives up per possession. The point is, regular statistics are tainted by pace. Teams who play at a faster face score more points, but also give up more points. Thus, although these teams give up more points per game, it doesn't mean their defense isn't as good as a slower-paced team that gives up less points. (By the way, adjusted defensive efficiency rankings can be found on http://www.kenpom.com/, a great great great site). The point is, teams who win championships are near the top of the rankings in adjusted (for schedule strength) defensive efficiency. Here are the national rankings for the past few champs: Kansas 1, Florida 12, Florida 5. Here's another even more remarkable fact: No team in the last five years ... none ... outside the Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency has made the Final Four (That includes George Mason). Several teams outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency have, so it has been less reliable at picking winners. (This whole thing, by the way, is bad news for Pitt and UNC, both outside the Top 25 in defensive efficiency). The past Gonzaga teams with Adam Morrison that flamed out early had defensive efficiency rankings in the 100s. This Gonzaga team is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency (While we're talking about efficiency, Gonzaga is also sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency, making them the only team in the Top 10 in both). By the way, if you want more conventional statistics, Gonzaga leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage defense.
Gonzaga also fits other qualifications of a championship team such as an experienced coach, having been to the tournament the previous year and not turning the ball over (sixth in the nation). Championship teams have traditionally come from the BCS conferences, but I'm willing to waive that after Memphis came one free throw away from winning the championship last year.
Now, the last time Gonzaga was featured in a prominent game, they were absolutely destroyed by Memphis ... at home. That loss made me wary of Gonzaga at first, but I'm starting to think that turned this team around. The Bulldogs haven't lost since then. I know it's a fairly weak schedule, but they've been blowing teams out, especially recently, winning their last three games by at least 25 points, including a win over Saint Mary's.
Have I convinced you yet? No? Yeah, I didn't figure. I gave it my best, but now all I can do is sit back and watch Gonzaga make a deep run.
Yes, Gonzaga. The 4-seed from the puny West Coast Conference that lost by about 8,000 points to Memphis at home a few months ago. That Gonzaga.
That's who I'm putting my money on, and I believe you'll wish you had. I'm not perfect -- nobody is at this -- but I do have to say that I'm pretty good at this.
I've been filling out brackets for nine years. I fill out one bracket per year, that's it. I feel the picks should be genuine (I take this seriously). I've picked the champion correctly five times in nine years. Not perfect, but pretty damn good considering that in any given season there are usually at least four teams that are considered legitimate picks to win it all. Getting it right 25% of the time would be good. I've managed 55%, although I will concede that five out of nine is a small sample size.
Why Gonzaga? (That's probably what you wanted to get to anyway). Many reasons. For one, they would be the perfect champion to a chaotic season in which no team could stay No. 1 for more than a week it seemed. So of course, the champion would be a team from a small conference that never came close to No. 1. That's the subjective reason and actually the weakest argument (Why did I start with it again?).
I've been studying this for several years and there is certain criteria that almost all championship teams fit, and it's how I try to choose my champion every year. Let's take a look.
Championship teams score lots of points and average large margins of victory. In the last 20 years of the tournament, every single champion has averaged at least 76 points per game during the season and had an average victory margin of 10 points per game. Every single one. The Bulldogs easily meet these requirements by scoring 79 points per game and winning by an average of 18 points per game, second in the nation behind only North Carolina. (This qualifier, by the way, eliminates Louisville and Memphis).
Championship teams have lots of NBA talent. If you take a look at the past tournament champions, they all have players who are drafted in the NBA, usually multiple ones. And it's not just because of tournament performance -- these players are considered to be NBA-calibar before the draft. Gonzaga has Austin Daye, a player who will probably be a lottery pick at some point, along with Jeremy Pargo, a likely second round pick, and Josh Heytvelt, a likely second and possibly first round pick. (This qualifier makes it hard to pick Pitt. However, it makes me scared that I have Wake Forest going down so early because they probably have the most NBA talent).
Championship teams are big. I don't know who came up with this idea that guard play wins in the tournament, but whoever did is wrong. Size wins in the tournament. It's about the big men. Kansas had Darrell Arthur, Florida had Joakim Noah, North Carolina had Sean May (and notice how they beat an Illinois team based off guards), and UConn had Omeka Okafor. Sure, you need to have good guards too (You need good everything to win the title), but if I have a choice between being a guard-oriented team or having some big men who can score, give me the guys down low. Gonzaga has Daye and Heytvelt (both 6'11'') and is actually the seventh tallest team in the country.
Championship teams play defense. Really good defense. Actually, make that GREAT defense. It's time for a lessen in defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is a stat that measures how many points a team gives up per possession. The point is, regular statistics are tainted by pace. Teams who play at a faster face score more points, but also give up more points. Thus, although these teams give up more points per game, it doesn't mean their defense isn't as good as a slower-paced team that gives up less points. (By the way, adjusted defensive efficiency rankings can be found on http://www.kenpom.com/, a great great great site). The point is, teams who win championships are near the top of the rankings in adjusted (for schedule strength) defensive efficiency. Here are the national rankings for the past few champs: Kansas 1, Florida 12, Florida 5. Here's another even more remarkable fact: No team in the last five years ... none ... outside the Top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency has made the Final Four (That includes George Mason). Several teams outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency have, so it has been less reliable at picking winners. (This whole thing, by the way, is bad news for Pitt and UNC, both outside the Top 25 in defensive efficiency). The past Gonzaga teams with Adam Morrison that flamed out early had defensive efficiency rankings in the 100s. This Gonzaga team is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency (While we're talking about efficiency, Gonzaga is also sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency, making them the only team in the Top 10 in both). By the way, if you want more conventional statistics, Gonzaga leads the nation in 2-point field goal percentage defense.
Gonzaga also fits other qualifications of a championship team such as an experienced coach, having been to the tournament the previous year and not turning the ball over (sixth in the nation). Championship teams have traditionally come from the BCS conferences, but I'm willing to waive that after Memphis came one free throw away from winning the championship last year.
Now, the last time Gonzaga was featured in a prominent game, they were absolutely destroyed by Memphis ... at home. That loss made me wary of Gonzaga at first, but I'm starting to think that turned this team around. The Bulldogs haven't lost since then. I know it's a fairly weak schedule, but they've been blowing teams out, especially recently, winning their last three games by at least 25 points, including a win over Saint Mary's.
Have I convinced you yet? No? Yeah, I didn't figure. I gave it my best, but now all I can do is sit back and watch Gonzaga make a deep run.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Pissed-off Rant Time
Okay, so you're all lucky enough to get the enraged version of Jared P. Stout for this blog post after watching the selection show.
The first thing I have to say is that I hate everyone on ESPN except for Doug Gottlieb. If it were up to them, the six power conferences would get 59 of the 65 bids.
Which brings me to this ... I don't know how anyone can defend putting Arizona in the tournament (which the ESPN people of course did). I don't think I've ever seen a worse decision by the committee than putting Arizona in. Here's a stat for you: Arizona is 2-9 on the road this year. 2-9!!! Even better ... those two wins? Oregon and Oregon State. Two of the three worst teams in the Pac-10! They have ZERO quality wins on the road. And you don't get home games in the NCAA Tourney.
Sidenote: The Wildcats did not beat Gonzaga on the road. The game was in Phoenix, a virtual home game for Arizona.
In addition, the Wildcats lost five of their last six games. The lone victory? A home win against Stanford ... the other team in the bottom three in the Pac-10.
Saint Mary's, a team that missed the tournament, played eight games in a row away from home earlier this season and won seven of those. Do you think you think a major conference team would ever play eight straight games away from home? (Thank you, Gottlieb for bringing that up.) Saint Mary's went 7-3 on the road for the season, and if you add neutral-court games, they are 13-5.
Saint Mary's was beating Gonzaga ON THE ROAD until their star player, Patty Mills, went down with an injury in the second half. Then the Gaels went on a little slide. I thought the committee was supposed to take these things in consideration. I guess that's only for teams in some conferences.
And then there's Creighton, a team that won 11 of 12 games to finish off the season. They also absolutely bitch-slapped Dayton, a tournament team, earlier in the year by 28 points. I think the Blue Jays are another team that could've been in over Arizona. Actually, there are about 9,000 teams that should've been in rather than Arizona.
Basically, the committee sent a horrible message that if you're a power-conference team, you don't need to schedule road games, and you don't need to win them either. All you need to do is go .500 in your conference and have a big name like Arizona.
OK, so that's my rant. The committee did an alright job except for that Arizona abomination, which was awful enough to screw up everything they did right.
To end things on a happy note ... man, I am ready for some madness!
The first thing I have to say is that I hate everyone on ESPN except for Doug Gottlieb. If it were up to them, the six power conferences would get 59 of the 65 bids.
Which brings me to this ... I don't know how anyone can defend putting Arizona in the tournament (which the ESPN people of course did). I don't think I've ever seen a worse decision by the committee than putting Arizona in. Here's a stat for you: Arizona is 2-9 on the road this year. 2-9!!! Even better ... those two wins? Oregon and Oregon State. Two of the three worst teams in the Pac-10! They have ZERO quality wins on the road. And you don't get home games in the NCAA Tourney.
Sidenote: The Wildcats did not beat Gonzaga on the road. The game was in Phoenix, a virtual home game for Arizona.
In addition, the Wildcats lost five of their last six games. The lone victory? A home win against Stanford ... the other team in the bottom three in the Pac-10.
Saint Mary's, a team that missed the tournament, played eight games in a row away from home earlier this season and won seven of those. Do you think you think a major conference team would ever play eight straight games away from home? (Thank you, Gottlieb for bringing that up.) Saint Mary's went 7-3 on the road for the season, and if you add neutral-court games, they are 13-5.
Saint Mary's was beating Gonzaga ON THE ROAD until their star player, Patty Mills, went down with an injury in the second half. Then the Gaels went on a little slide. I thought the committee was supposed to take these things in consideration. I guess that's only for teams in some conferences.
And then there's Creighton, a team that won 11 of 12 games to finish off the season. They also absolutely bitch-slapped Dayton, a tournament team, earlier in the year by 28 points. I think the Blue Jays are another team that could've been in over Arizona. Actually, there are about 9,000 teams that should've been in rather than Arizona.
Basically, the committee sent a horrible message that if you're a power-conference team, you don't need to schedule road games, and you don't need to win them either. All you need to do is go .500 in your conference and have a big name like Arizona.
OK, so that's my rant. The committee did an alright job except for that Arizona abomination, which was awful enough to screw up everything they did right.
To end things on a happy note ... man, I am ready for some madness!
Friday, March 6, 2009
Conference Tournament Predictions, Part 2
I wrote these predictions this afternoon while the Colonial tournament had just started, so I'm a little late. Sorry. I'm sure you were dying to get them in time.
America East
Dates: March 6-8, 14
Top seed: Binghamton
Projected winner: Vermont
Watch out for: Stony Brook
Thoughts: Binghamton and Vermont finished with identical conference records, but Vermont has the better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and looked impressive to me in a Bracketbusters win against MAC leader Buffalo. The Catamounts only won the game by 8, but they were up a lot more before the Bulls made a late rally.
Big Sky
Dates: March 7, 10-11
Top seed: Weber State
Projected winner: Weber State
Watch out for: Portland State
Thoughts: Weber State lost just once in the conference during the regular season, and they get to host the tournament. That's a good combination for victory. Portland State figures to be the toughest competition. The Vikings won the conference tourney last year and own a victory over Gonzaga this year.
Colonial
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Virginia Commonwealth
Projected winner: Old Dominion
Watch out for: George Mason
Thoughts: This may turn out to be the most exciting conference tournament this year as the top six teams in the standings finished within four games of each other, and this league is getting only one bid. Many people may remember VCU from its upset of Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament two years ago. Guard Eric Maynor returns from that team and is a possible NBA draft pick. Despite this, I'm going with a slight surprise pick and taking fourth-seed Old Dominion, which has won five games in a row, including one against VCU. In that streak, ODU also had an impressive win against Liberty.
Metro Atlantic
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Siena
Projected winner: Niagara
Watch out for: Rider
Thoughts: Siena scored an upset over Vanderbilt in last year's NCAA tournament and have most of the players returning from that team, but they sure got schooled by second-seed Niagara last week on the road, giving up 100 points. In a college game ... with no overtime. Bad sign. Rider is a team to watch out for as they were on top of the league standings until late in the year, falling to a third seed. Last year's main man, Jason Thompson, was a first round pick in the NBA draft last year, and sometimes teams actually do better after losing that superstar.
Southern
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Davidson
Projected winner: Davidson
Watch out for: Chattanooga
Thoughts: I just can't pick against Davidson, even though the Wildcats definitely aren't as strong as last year. All that matters is they still have Stephen Curry. A stat that will surprise some is that Davidson's strength is actually defense. The Wildcats rank 38th in the country in defensive efficiency while they're not in the top 100 on offense. Weird when you have the nation's leading scorer. The Wildcats may want to hope they don't face Chattanooga in the finals, because that's where the finals are being held.
Summit
Top seed: North Dakota State
Projected winner: North Dakota State
Watch out for: Oral Roberts
Thoughts: North Dakota State has a great story. The Bison are in their first season of eligibility for the NCAA tournament and many of this year's seniors actually redshirted early in their careers to get this chance. I don't think they'll let it slip up. Ben Woodside is one of the most underrated players in the country and averages 23 points per game. Oral Roberts is the three-time defending champion of this tournament and can't be counted out.
West Coast
Dates: 6-9
Top seed: Gonzaga
Projected winner: Gonzaga
Watch out for: Saint Mary's
Thoughts: Gonzaga is just too good to lose this tournament, even if Patty Mills comes back for Saint Mary's as expected. I do think the Gaels will make it to the title game with Mills back, and they need to make it that far if they want a shot at an at-large berth in the NCAA tourney.
America East
Dates: March 6-8, 14
Top seed: Binghamton
Projected winner: Vermont
Watch out for: Stony Brook
Thoughts: Binghamton and Vermont finished with identical conference records, but Vermont has the better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and looked impressive to me in a Bracketbusters win against MAC leader Buffalo. The Catamounts only won the game by 8, but they were up a lot more before the Bulls made a late rally.
Big Sky
Dates: March 7, 10-11
Top seed: Weber State
Projected winner: Weber State
Watch out for: Portland State
Thoughts: Weber State lost just once in the conference during the regular season, and they get to host the tournament. That's a good combination for victory. Portland State figures to be the toughest competition. The Vikings won the conference tourney last year and own a victory over Gonzaga this year.
Colonial
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Virginia Commonwealth
Projected winner: Old Dominion
Watch out for: George Mason
Thoughts: This may turn out to be the most exciting conference tournament this year as the top six teams in the standings finished within four games of each other, and this league is getting only one bid. Many people may remember VCU from its upset of Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament two years ago. Guard Eric Maynor returns from that team and is a possible NBA draft pick. Despite this, I'm going with a slight surprise pick and taking fourth-seed Old Dominion, which has won five games in a row, including one against VCU. In that streak, ODU also had an impressive win against Liberty.
Metro Atlantic
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Siena
Projected winner: Niagara
Watch out for: Rider
Thoughts: Siena scored an upset over Vanderbilt in last year's NCAA tournament and have most of the players returning from that team, but they sure got schooled by second-seed Niagara last week on the road, giving up 100 points. In a college game ... with no overtime. Bad sign. Rider is a team to watch out for as they were on top of the league standings until late in the year, falling to a third seed. Last year's main man, Jason Thompson, was a first round pick in the NBA draft last year, and sometimes teams actually do better after losing that superstar.
Southern
Dates: March 6-9
Top seed: Davidson
Projected winner: Davidson
Watch out for: Chattanooga
Thoughts: I just can't pick against Davidson, even though the Wildcats definitely aren't as strong as last year. All that matters is they still have Stephen Curry. A stat that will surprise some is that Davidson's strength is actually defense. The Wildcats rank 38th in the country in defensive efficiency while they're not in the top 100 on offense. Weird when you have the nation's leading scorer. The Wildcats may want to hope they don't face Chattanooga in the finals, because that's where the finals are being held.
Summit
Top seed: North Dakota State
Projected winner: North Dakota State
Watch out for: Oral Roberts
Thoughts: North Dakota State has a great story. The Bison are in their first season of eligibility for the NCAA tournament and many of this year's seniors actually redshirted early in their careers to get this chance. I don't think they'll let it slip up. Ben Woodside is one of the most underrated players in the country and averages 23 points per game. Oral Roberts is the three-time defending champion of this tournament and can't be counted out.
West Coast
Dates: 6-9
Top seed: Gonzaga
Projected winner: Gonzaga
Watch out for: Saint Mary's
Thoughts: Gonzaga is just too good to lose this tournament, even if Patty Mills comes back for Saint Mary's as expected. I do think the Gaels will make it to the title game with Mills back, and they need to make it that far if they want a shot at an at-large berth in the NCAA tourney.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Conference Tournament Predictions
Screw Bowl Week ... errr Capital One Bowl Week ... or whatever it's called. Give me conference championship week any time (at least until they bring back the Copper Bowl and Freedom Bowl).
During the next two weeks, I'm going to give predictions on who I think will win all 30 conference tournaments. Here are some of the tournament scheduled to start this week.
Big South
Dates: March 3, 5, 7
Top seed: Radford
Projected winner: VMI
Watch out for: Liberty
Thoughts: VMI plays a frenetic full-court pressing style that rank's the team as the fourth-best in the country at forcing turnovers. Senior brothers Travis and Chavis Holmes are ready to finally lead this team to the NCAA Tournament. Liberty, however, does have Stephen Curry's little brother, Seth, so don't sleep on them.
Horizon
Dates: March 3, 6-7, 10
Top seed: Butler
Projected winner: Butler
Watch out for: Cleveland State
Thoughts: I just can't go against Butler in this one, even though the Bulldogs have had some problems in previous conference tournaments. They also don't need to win the tournament as they are in line for an at-large berth. Their biggest challenge will likely come from No. 3 seed Cleveland State, who beat Syracuse on a miracle buzzer-beater earlier this season and played tough at West Virginia. Butler beat the Vikings twice this season, but by only two points each time.
Ohio Valley
Dates: March 3, 6-7
Top seed: Tennessee-Martin
Projected winner: Tennessee-Martin
Watch out for: Murray State
Thoughts: Tennesee-Martin has the nation's second-leading scorer in Lester Hudson (26.6 ppg) and have the second best defense in the conference. That sounds like a good combination, although this conference has had some crazy shit happen in past tournaments. UT-Martin got waxed by Murray State last week.
Atlantic Sun
Dates: March 4-7
Top seed: Jacksonville
Projected winner: Belmont
Watch out for: East Tennessee State
Thoughts: Belmont has won the last three conference tournaments, so I'm going to stick with the pick that works. I think the team would love to get back to the big dance after last year's close call against Duke. It also helps that the tournament is being played in Nashville, where Belmont is located.
Patriot
Dates: March 4, 8, 13
Top seed: American
Projected winner: American
Watch out for: Holy Cross
Thoughts: American has won 10 games in a row and gave Tennesee a good game in last year's NCAA Tournament. American's lone conference loss came against Holy Cross, a former tournament mainstay.
Sun Belt
Dates: March 4, 7-10.
Top seed: Western Kentucky
Projected winner: Western Kentucky
Watch out for: Denver
Thoughts: Western Kentucky, even after the graduation of NBA pro Courtney Lee and the loss of coach Darrin Horn, has bounced back with a nice season that included a win against Louisville early in the year. No reason to believe it won't continue. Denver did beat the Hilltoppers earlier in the season, and the Pioneers have won four of their last five. They also are the slowest-paced team in the country and have the best efficiency field goal percentage in the country.
Missouri Valley
Dates: March 5-8
Top seed: Northern Iowa
Projected winner: Illinois State
Watch out for: Wichita State
Thoughts: Ahhh my beloved Missouri Valley. It's been crazy this year with Southern Illinois struggling, Northern Iowa coming out of nowhere, and Creighton starting the season as a disappointment and ending the season on fire. I think we'll see just as much chaos in "Arch Madness," as they call it (the tournament's in St. Louis). I'm going with No. 3 seed Illinois State, led by Osiris Eldridge, to pull through and reach the NCAAs after being a bubble team that fell short last year. Wichita State may be a No. 7 seed, but Shockers' coach Gregg Marshall has had great conference tournament success in the past with Winthrop, and Wichita State finished the season 9-4 after a horrid start.
Northeast
Dates: March 5, 8, 11
Top seed: Robert Morris
Projected winner: Robert Morris
Watch out for: Mount St. Mary's
Thoughts: The Colonials were the top seed in the conference tournament last year and failed to win it all, but I think that experience will helpl them this time around. Robert Morris gets to play every game at home, and the Colonials have lost only twice there all year and one of those games was against Duquesne, a tough opponent this year.
During the next two weeks, I'm going to give predictions on who I think will win all 30 conference tournaments. Here are some of the tournament scheduled to start this week.
Big South
Dates: March 3, 5, 7
Top seed: Radford
Projected winner: VMI
Watch out for: Liberty
Thoughts: VMI plays a frenetic full-court pressing style that rank's the team as the fourth-best in the country at forcing turnovers. Senior brothers Travis and Chavis Holmes are ready to finally lead this team to the NCAA Tournament. Liberty, however, does have Stephen Curry's little brother, Seth, so don't sleep on them.
Horizon
Dates: March 3, 6-7, 10
Top seed: Butler
Projected winner: Butler
Watch out for: Cleveland State
Thoughts: I just can't go against Butler in this one, even though the Bulldogs have had some problems in previous conference tournaments. They also don't need to win the tournament as they are in line for an at-large berth. Their biggest challenge will likely come from No. 3 seed Cleveland State, who beat Syracuse on a miracle buzzer-beater earlier this season and played tough at West Virginia. Butler beat the Vikings twice this season, but by only two points each time.
Ohio Valley
Dates: March 3, 6-7
Top seed: Tennessee-Martin
Projected winner: Tennessee-Martin
Watch out for: Murray State
Thoughts: Tennesee-Martin has the nation's second-leading scorer in Lester Hudson (26.6 ppg) and have the second best defense in the conference. That sounds like a good combination, although this conference has had some crazy shit happen in past tournaments. UT-Martin got waxed by Murray State last week.
Atlantic Sun
Dates: March 4-7
Top seed: Jacksonville
Projected winner: Belmont
Watch out for: East Tennessee State
Thoughts: Belmont has won the last three conference tournaments, so I'm going to stick with the pick that works. I think the team would love to get back to the big dance after last year's close call against Duke. It also helps that the tournament is being played in Nashville, where Belmont is located.
Patriot
Dates: March 4, 8, 13
Top seed: American
Projected winner: American
Watch out for: Holy Cross
Thoughts: American has won 10 games in a row and gave Tennesee a good game in last year's NCAA Tournament. American's lone conference loss came against Holy Cross, a former tournament mainstay.
Sun Belt
Dates: March 4, 7-10.
Top seed: Western Kentucky
Projected winner: Western Kentucky
Watch out for: Denver
Thoughts: Western Kentucky, even after the graduation of NBA pro Courtney Lee and the loss of coach Darrin Horn, has bounced back with a nice season that included a win against Louisville early in the year. No reason to believe it won't continue. Denver did beat the Hilltoppers earlier in the season, and the Pioneers have won four of their last five. They also are the slowest-paced team in the country and have the best efficiency field goal percentage in the country.
Missouri Valley
Dates: March 5-8
Top seed: Northern Iowa
Projected winner: Illinois State
Watch out for: Wichita State
Thoughts: Ahhh my beloved Missouri Valley. It's been crazy this year with Southern Illinois struggling, Northern Iowa coming out of nowhere, and Creighton starting the season as a disappointment and ending the season on fire. I think we'll see just as much chaos in "Arch Madness," as they call it (the tournament's in St. Louis). I'm going with No. 3 seed Illinois State, led by Osiris Eldridge, to pull through and reach the NCAAs after being a bubble team that fell short last year. Wichita State may be a No. 7 seed, but Shockers' coach Gregg Marshall has had great conference tournament success in the past with Winthrop, and Wichita State finished the season 9-4 after a horrid start.
Northeast
Dates: March 5, 8, 11
Top seed: Robert Morris
Projected winner: Robert Morris
Watch out for: Mount St. Mary's
Thoughts: The Colonials were the top seed in the conference tournament last year and failed to win it all, but I think that experience will helpl them this time around. Robert Morris gets to play every game at home, and the Colonials have lost only twice there all year and one of those games was against Duquesne, a tough opponent this year.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Super Bowl Thoughts
Now that I've finally caught my breath...
- That sure was a pretty amazing Super Bowl. It had twists and turns, great plays and a great finish. It wasn't the easiest to watch if you were a fan of one of the teams. Trust me on that.
- Some analysts are calling it the best Super Bowl ever, but I'm not sure if I'm ready to do that. There's always a tendency to overrate what just happened. Remember, the greatest Super Bowl ever supposedly happened last year too. I think I might still put that game from last year above this one just because of the subplot of the Patriots losing their chance at going undefeated.
- I knew the Steelers were in good shape when Matt Millen picked the Cardinals to win during the pregame show.
- I agreed with the pick for Santonio Holmes for MVP, especially because of the sheer difficulty of that catch. Ben Roethlisberger would've been a decent pick, too. I was all set to go with James Harrison because of that ridiculous interception return until Arizona took the lead on the Larry Fitzgerald touchdown.
- I think Holmes did such a good job on that touchdown catch that he even got his third leg down. (Search Deadspin if you're not sure about this reference.)
- I know your team won the game and you obviously did an excellent job this season, but please, please, please, please, Mike Tomlin, do not kick a field goal from the 1-foot line ever again. Tomlin had been aggressive with those decisions all year up until that point. It didn't really matter in the end, but I'm just hoping for the future.
- Once again, the commercials were mostly terrible. The only memorable one was the cash4gold.com commercial. Ed McMahon + MC Hammer = priceless. The commercials just strengthened my belief that anyone who says they watch the Super Bowl only for the commercials is the worst kind of person.
- The officiating wasn't very good, and it did favor the Steelers for the most part, but it didn't cost Arizona the game. The officiating this season as a whole wasn't very good, so it's not really surprising that this happened in the Super Bowl. Maybe the edge for the Steelers was also payback for the fact that James Harrison would've had about 30 sacks this year if he hadn't been held on every play this season.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Steelers Defense
I've been wondering this for a few days now, but why is it that everyone is asking how the Steelers will stop the Cardinals' offense? The Steelers had the top defense in the NFL this year. The Cardinals did not. Shouldn't the Cardinals be more worried about how they will score on the Steelers' defense? I mean, it was pretty good during the season. It was also easily the best I've ever seen a Steelers' secondary play. The only huge meaningful pass play I can remember them giving up is the one to Reggie Wayne against the Colts, and that was plain luck -- Ike Taylor had great coverage, batted the ball in the air, and it went right to Wayne.
The Steelers have stopped great wide receivers before. I don't expect them to hold Fitzgerald to two catches or anything like that, but anyone who thinks Fitzgerald is going to get 200 yards receiving and more than two touchdowns is dreaming. As a Steelers fan, I'm much more worried about the Steelers' offense vs. the Cardinals' defense. I think that's what will determine the game. If the Steelers don't turn the ball over, they're 99 percent to win this game. But that's a big if.
The Steelers have stopped great wide receivers before. I don't expect them to hold Fitzgerald to two catches or anything like that, but anyone who thinks Fitzgerald is going to get 200 yards receiving and more than two touchdowns is dreaming. As a Steelers fan, I'm much more worried about the Steelers' offense vs. the Cardinals' defense. I think that's what will determine the game. If the Steelers don't turn the ball over, they're 99 percent to win this game. But that's a big if.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
NFL Playoff Predictions, Conference Championships
I've got to do this quick since the first game is about to start, so I'll just start off by saying that I think we will see an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. The Eagles are giving off this "Steelers during their 2005 Super Bowl run" vibe. I think they'll be able to pressure Kurt Warner into some turnovers, and I actually think they'll win without much trouble.
I actually feel better about the Steelers as the week goes on. I really like what they showed against San Diego, and I like that Mike Tomlin has shown that he'll be aggressive in his coaching, even if some of those decisions didn't work. I think in the past, the Steelers coaches sometimes were too cautious (including last year against Jacksonville). Also, Baltimore didn't show me much last week. I thought it was more of a case of Tennessee losing the game.
Picks:
Philadelphia 30, Arizona 14
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 13
Overall Record: 4-4
I actually feel better about the Steelers as the week goes on. I really like what they showed against San Diego, and I like that Mike Tomlin has shown that he'll be aggressive in his coaching, even if some of those decisions didn't work. I think in the past, the Steelers coaches sometimes were too cautious (including last year against Jacksonville). Also, Baltimore didn't show me much last week. I thought it was more of a case of Tennessee losing the game.
Picks:
Philadelphia 30, Arizona 14
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 13
Overall Record: 4-4
Saturday, January 10, 2009
0 = 1?
Can officiating in the NFL get any worse? Since when could you snap the ball after the play clock had been at 0 for a full second, maybe even two! My only guess is Ray Lewis threatened to stab somebody. Obviously Tennessee put itself in a bad situation with those turnovers, but a mistake like that (Baltimore's subsequent completion was the key to their game-winning drive) by the officials is inexcusable. I can understand that certain judgment calls are difficult for officials, but how can you make a mistake like that with the clock? I bet next year, coaches will be allowed to challenge the play clock.
More thoughts on this game later.
More thoughts on this game later.
NFL Playoff Predictions, Divisional Round
I'm going to go with a different format in this week's predictions. Sometimes, I like to look at each game individually, like last week. But today, I want to take a look at the games as a whole.
The reason for this is, I'm really bothered by this week's games because I think the picks are way too obvious. I mean, doesn't it seem like we're destined for conference championship games of New York vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore? The first three teams seem like solid favorites, and Baltimore is the obvious upset pick because Tennessee seems like such a lame No. 1 seed.
But this bothers me. Way too easy and obvious. Nothing happens that easily. So, I think we'll see something crazy.
First, I'm going to switch on the Baltimore vs. Tennessee pick. It's just such an easy upset pick that I think it won't happen. The obvious upsets are usually the ones that don't happen. Plus, you do have to consider that the Ravens have a rookie QB starting, and historically, it just doesn't work. Baltimore won that game against Miami because of their defense. Flacco actually had a poor game -- he only completed nine of 23 passes. I think at some point against Tennessee, he's going to make a big mistake from which the Ravens can't recover.
Then, looking at the rest of the games, it seems like all the home teams should win without much trouble. But I really think we're going to see a really surprising result in one of these games, just like last year when the Giants beat the No. 1 seed Cowboys. Did anyone see that coming?
Thus, I'm going to go with the craziest pick, I'm just feeling it. I'm going with Arizona over Carolina. I'm not sure if anyone outside the state of Arizona thinks the Cardinals even have a shot against the Panthers, and really with good reason. Arizona has been dreadful in the eastern time zone, going 0-5, including a loss to the Panthers early in the season. The Panthers were also hot at the end of the season while the Cardinals floundered horribly. Everything points against the Cardinals, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I might be horribly off on this one, maybe everything will go plan and the Panthers will lose by 30, but I just see Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense putting up a lot of early points and forcing the Panthers to get away from their strength -- the running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Picks:
Tennessee 9, Baltimore 3 (That's right, no touchdowns)
Arizona 38, Carolina 27
NY Giants 23, Philadelphia 20, OT
Pittsburgh 18, San Diego 10 (See what I did there?)
Overall record: 2-2
The reason for this is, I'm really bothered by this week's games because I think the picks are way too obvious. I mean, doesn't it seem like we're destined for conference championship games of New York vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore? The first three teams seem like solid favorites, and Baltimore is the obvious upset pick because Tennessee seems like such a lame No. 1 seed.
But this bothers me. Way too easy and obvious. Nothing happens that easily. So, I think we'll see something crazy.
First, I'm going to switch on the Baltimore vs. Tennessee pick. It's just such an easy upset pick that I think it won't happen. The obvious upsets are usually the ones that don't happen. Plus, you do have to consider that the Ravens have a rookie QB starting, and historically, it just doesn't work. Baltimore won that game against Miami because of their defense. Flacco actually had a poor game -- he only completed nine of 23 passes. I think at some point against Tennessee, he's going to make a big mistake from which the Ravens can't recover.
Then, looking at the rest of the games, it seems like all the home teams should win without much trouble. But I really think we're going to see a really surprising result in one of these games, just like last year when the Giants beat the No. 1 seed Cowboys. Did anyone see that coming?
Thus, I'm going to go with the craziest pick, I'm just feeling it. I'm going with Arizona over Carolina. I'm not sure if anyone outside the state of Arizona thinks the Cardinals even have a shot against the Panthers, and really with good reason. Arizona has been dreadful in the eastern time zone, going 0-5, including a loss to the Panthers early in the season. The Panthers were also hot at the end of the season while the Cardinals floundered horribly. Everything points against the Cardinals, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I might be horribly off on this one, maybe everything will go plan and the Panthers will lose by 30, but I just see Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense putting up a lot of early points and forcing the Panthers to get away from their strength -- the running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Picks:
Tennessee 9, Baltimore 3 (That's right, no touchdowns)
Arizona 38, Carolina 27
NY Giants 23, Philadelphia 20, OT
Pittsburgh 18, San Diego 10 (See what I did there?)
Overall record: 2-2
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Overtime Solutions
Because of San Diego's overtime win against Indianapolis Saturday night -- in which the Colts never touched the ball in the extra quarter -- there has been the same talk we hear at least once a season about how the NFL's overtime format should be changed. It seems like most fans want it changed, but the NFL shockingly doesn't have the balls to fix it (just like the playoff system).
People who want to keep the status quo say "Well, your defense just needs to step up."
If you know me well enough, you probably could figure out that I hate answers like this. Why should one team's defense be held to that standard while the other isn't? Because of the flip of some stupid coin?
Also, lovers of the current system, consider this: What if baseball used the NFL's system? If a team scored in the top of the 10th, then that's it. Game over. There would be outrage, I gaurantee it.
"Why didn't the home team get a chance in the bottom of the 10th?!"
"Well, their pitcher should've just stepped it up."
It might seem silly to use that system in baseball, but there's practically no difference.
Thus, I offer three potential solutions to fix overtime in the NFL:
1.) Each team is guaranteed one possession. This is the easiest and most likely solution, and it also doesn't require much explanation. The team who wins the coin toss would still have a slight advantage (because of having the third and fifth and seventh chance of scoring), but that would be offset by the fact that the second team would have a slight advantage in knowing if they NEED to score on their first possession. Then, they can forego punting or kicking a field goal if they need a touchdown.
2.) First possession is determined by something non-arbitrary. This should be a good comprimise because it keeps the sudden death format intact. Supporters of the current system try to argue that the coin toss isn't as important as it really is. The truth is, everyone knows how important it is. Notice how you always see the players celebrate hardcore after winning the toss for overtime? You ever see that at the beginning of the game? No -- because it doesn't matter. Why can't we give the first possession to the team with more yards? Or less penalties? Or here's an interesting thought -- the team that scored last in regulation gets the ball second. That way, maybe we'll see more teams get aggressive when they're down by 3 with a minute to go. Instead of just playing it safe, kicking the field goal and waiting for OT, maybe they'll take some shots at the end zone. Also, if a team down by 7 scores a TD at the end of regulation, maybe they'll go for 2, knowing that they get the ball 2nd in OT. It would force teams to be more aggressive, and that's always more fun. ... We could also always use the XFL route of making two players race for the ball (the league's one and only good idea).
3.) First team to six points in OT wins. I actually read this idea in some sportswriter's column years ago, so I can't take full credit for it, but it's kind of interesting as another compromise. I have less sympathy for a team that gives up a touchdown on the first possession in overtime. I hate seeing games end in OT when the first team kicks a field goal from about 53 yards out. Boooooring. Now, if you can go down and make two field goals in the overtime period, then I think you earned it.
People who want to keep the status quo say "Well, your defense just needs to step up."
If you know me well enough, you probably could figure out that I hate answers like this. Why should one team's defense be held to that standard while the other isn't? Because of the flip of some stupid coin?
Also, lovers of the current system, consider this: What if baseball used the NFL's system? If a team scored in the top of the 10th, then that's it. Game over. There would be outrage, I gaurantee it.
"Why didn't the home team get a chance in the bottom of the 10th?!"
"Well, their pitcher should've just stepped it up."
It might seem silly to use that system in baseball, but there's practically no difference.
Thus, I offer three potential solutions to fix overtime in the NFL:
1.) Each team is guaranteed one possession. This is the easiest and most likely solution, and it also doesn't require much explanation. The team who wins the coin toss would still have a slight advantage (because of having the third and fifth and seventh chance of scoring), but that would be offset by the fact that the second team would have a slight advantage in knowing if they NEED to score on their first possession. Then, they can forego punting or kicking a field goal if they need a touchdown.
2.) First possession is determined by something non-arbitrary. This should be a good comprimise because it keeps the sudden death format intact. Supporters of the current system try to argue that the coin toss isn't as important as it really is. The truth is, everyone knows how important it is. Notice how you always see the players celebrate hardcore after winning the toss for overtime? You ever see that at the beginning of the game? No -- because it doesn't matter. Why can't we give the first possession to the team with more yards? Or less penalties? Or here's an interesting thought -- the team that scored last in regulation gets the ball second. That way, maybe we'll see more teams get aggressive when they're down by 3 with a minute to go. Instead of just playing it safe, kicking the field goal and waiting for OT, maybe they'll take some shots at the end zone. Also, if a team down by 7 scores a TD at the end of regulation, maybe they'll go for 2, knowing that they get the ball 2nd in OT. It would force teams to be more aggressive, and that's always more fun. ... We could also always use the XFL route of making two players race for the ball (the league's one and only good idea).
3.) First team to six points in OT wins. I actually read this idea in some sportswriter's column years ago, so I can't take full credit for it, but it's kind of interesting as another compromise. I have less sympathy for a team that gives up a touchdown on the first possession in overtime. I hate seeing games end in OT when the first team kicks a field goal from about 53 yards out. Boooooring. Now, if you can go down and make two field goals in the overtime period, then I think you earned it.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
NFL Playoff Picks, Wild Card Round, Part 2
As I'm watching the Chargers commit a bunch of turnovers that will probably make me 0-2 today, I guess I'll try to redeem myself with these picks:
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI
I've liked Baltimore in this game from the very beginning, but the Falcons' loss to the Cardinals makes me want to rethink the prediction because Baltimore, just like Atlanta, has a rookie QB starting in a playoff game: Joe Flacco. The difference is that Baltimore has a much better defense than Atlanta does. I really liked the way the Ravens responded after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Previous Ravens teams may have fallen apart after such an emotional loss, but this one kept it together to make the playoffs. Miami just strikes me as a lame team -- I really don't know how they managed to go 11-5. In fact, the Dolphins are rated 16th (!) in the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings, a personal favorite of mine. I expect the Ravens to keep the Wildcat at bay, just like they did earlier this season in a win over Miami, and Flacco won't be asked to do too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 16, Miami 6
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA
Is there more of a tease than the Philadelphia Eagles this year? It seems like you can say that about every year. Just when you think they might be one of the elite teams in the NFL (wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and NY Giants) they absolutely lay an egg (tie against Cincinnati, blowout against Baltimore, late-season loss to Washington). Now that the Eagles blew out Dallas, I think it's time for them to disappoint us all yet again. I really think Minnesota is going to shut down their offense in this game. The Eagles tend to have the most trouble when Andy Reid decides to get super pass-happy, and I just think there's a huge chance of that happening in this game. Minnesota has the league's top run defense, and I think Brian Westbrook will be rendered virtually ineffective, leading McNabb to throw about 40 passes while being hounded by Jared Allen the whole time. A low-scoring game allows the Vikings to concentrate on getting the ball to Adrian Peterson and out of Tarvaris Jackson's hands. I think Peterson runs for about 150 yards in his playoff debut, and then we'll be talking afterwards about whether McNabb and/or Reid will be coming back to Philly next year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 10
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI
I've liked Baltimore in this game from the very beginning, but the Falcons' loss to the Cardinals makes me want to rethink the prediction because Baltimore, just like Atlanta, has a rookie QB starting in a playoff game: Joe Flacco. The difference is that Baltimore has a much better defense than Atlanta does. I really liked the way the Ravens responded after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Previous Ravens teams may have fallen apart after such an emotional loss, but this one kept it together to make the playoffs. Miami just strikes me as a lame team -- I really don't know how they managed to go 11-5. In fact, the Dolphins are rated 16th (!) in the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings, a personal favorite of mine. I expect the Ravens to keep the Wildcat at bay, just like they did earlier this season in a win over Miami, and Flacco won't be asked to do too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 16, Miami 6
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA
Is there more of a tease than the Philadelphia Eagles this year? It seems like you can say that about every year. Just when you think they might be one of the elite teams in the NFL (wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and NY Giants) they absolutely lay an egg (tie against Cincinnati, blowout against Baltimore, late-season loss to Washington). Now that the Eagles blew out Dallas, I think it's time for them to disappoint us all yet again. I really think Minnesota is going to shut down their offense in this game. The Eagles tend to have the most trouble when Andy Reid decides to get super pass-happy, and I just think there's a huge chance of that happening in this game. Minnesota has the league's top run defense, and I think Brian Westbrook will be rendered virtually ineffective, leading McNabb to throw about 40 passes while being hounded by Jared Allen the whole time. A low-scoring game allows the Vikings to concentrate on getting the ball to Adrian Peterson and out of Tarvaris Jackson's hands. I think Peterson runs for about 150 yards in his playoff debut, and then we'll be talking afterwards about whether McNabb and/or Reid will be coming back to Philly next year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 10
NFL Playoff Picks, Wild Card Round, Pt. 1
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA
Is there anyone in outside the state of Arizona who actually believes the Cardinals will win this one? Since Atlanta's not an NFC West team, I'm not sure how Arizona possibly could win, because those are the only teams the Cardinals beat. Arizona is 3-7 against teams outside of the NFC West. 3-7! Those three wins came against respectable competition -- Buffalo, Dallas and Miami -- but here's another problem -- all those wins came before October 13. I think the only two things to worry about for Atlanta are that Michael Turner averages a mediocre 3.9 yards per carry on the road, and Matt Ryan is a rookie QB, and despite how good he was in the regular season, I normally don't like rookie QBs in the postseason -- remember how awful Big Ben was that one year? However, Ryan's stats have been better the second half of the season, so maybe he hasn't hit the rookie wall: Yards per attempt in September and October -- 6.37 and 7.72; November and December -- 9.25 and 8.07. ... And remember, it's the Cardinals.
Prediction: Atlanta 31, Arizona 20.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO
A few weeks ago, I was telling a lot of people that I liked the Colts to reach the Super Bowl, and probably play the Giants, creating the dreaded Archie Manning Bowl. But a funny thing happened since then -- the Colts became the chic Super Bowl sleeper pick, not that surprising considering that they've won nine in a row. About two or three weeks ago, I completely changed my mind on the Colts. I don't like that they haven't lost a game in so long. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's the teams that have won four or five in a row that scare me as opposed to the ones who have won nine in a row. Sounds crazy, I know, but there just comes a time when you run out of gas. The Chargers, on the other hand, fit the profile of a hot team I like -- four wins in a row. It might be harder to pick San Diego after hearing that Ladainian Tomlinson is battling an injury. As of now, he's going to try to play despite a torn tendon. But the dirty little secret is that less LT might be good for the Chargers. Darren Sproles, who is averging 5.4 yards per carry, is actually a better weapon for San Diego right now, in my opinion. Because of his size, he may not be effective over a long period of time, but in a one-game situation against a team who has a poor run defense (24th in the league), I like him a lot.
Prediction: San Diego 27 Indianapolis 23
I'll have my picks for tomorrow later.
Is there anyone in outside the state of Arizona who actually believes the Cardinals will win this one? Since Atlanta's not an NFC West team, I'm not sure how Arizona possibly could win, because those are the only teams the Cardinals beat. Arizona is 3-7 against teams outside of the NFC West. 3-7! Those three wins came against respectable competition -- Buffalo, Dallas and Miami -- but here's another problem -- all those wins came before October 13. I think the only two things to worry about for Atlanta are that Michael Turner averages a mediocre 3.9 yards per carry on the road, and Matt Ryan is a rookie QB, and despite how good he was in the regular season, I normally don't like rookie QBs in the postseason -- remember how awful Big Ben was that one year? However, Ryan's stats have been better the second half of the season, so maybe he hasn't hit the rookie wall: Yards per attempt in September and October -- 6.37 and 7.72; November and December -- 9.25 and 8.07. ... And remember, it's the Cardinals.
Prediction: Atlanta 31, Arizona 20.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO
A few weeks ago, I was telling a lot of people that I liked the Colts to reach the Super Bowl, and probably play the Giants, creating the dreaded Archie Manning Bowl. But a funny thing happened since then -- the Colts became the chic Super Bowl sleeper pick, not that surprising considering that they've won nine in a row. About two or three weeks ago, I completely changed my mind on the Colts. I don't like that they haven't lost a game in so long. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's the teams that have won four or five in a row that scare me as opposed to the ones who have won nine in a row. Sounds crazy, I know, but there just comes a time when you run out of gas. The Chargers, on the other hand, fit the profile of a hot team I like -- four wins in a row. It might be harder to pick San Diego after hearing that Ladainian Tomlinson is battling an injury. As of now, he's going to try to play despite a torn tendon. But the dirty little secret is that less LT might be good for the Chargers. Darren Sproles, who is averging 5.4 yards per carry, is actually a better weapon for San Diego right now, in my opinion. Because of his size, he may not be effective over a long period of time, but in a one-game situation against a team who has a poor run defense (24th in the league), I like him a lot.
Prediction: San Diego 27 Indianapolis 23
I'll have my picks for tomorrow later.
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