I've been wondering this for a few days now, but why is it that everyone is asking how the Steelers will stop the Cardinals' offense? The Steelers had the top defense in the NFL this year. The Cardinals did not. Shouldn't the Cardinals be more worried about how they will score on the Steelers' defense? I mean, it was pretty good during the season. It was also easily the best I've ever seen a Steelers' secondary play. The only huge meaningful pass play I can remember them giving up is the one to Reggie Wayne against the Colts, and that was plain luck -- Ike Taylor had great coverage, batted the ball in the air, and it went right to Wayne.
The Steelers have stopped great wide receivers before. I don't expect them to hold Fitzgerald to two catches or anything like that, but anyone who thinks Fitzgerald is going to get 200 yards receiving and more than two touchdowns is dreaming. As a Steelers fan, I'm much more worried about the Steelers' offense vs. the Cardinals' defense. I think that's what will determine the game. If the Steelers don't turn the ball over, they're 99 percent to win this game. But that's a big if.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Sunday, January 18, 2009
NFL Playoff Predictions, Conference Championships
I've got to do this quick since the first game is about to start, so I'll just start off by saying that I think we will see an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. The Eagles are giving off this "Steelers during their 2005 Super Bowl run" vibe. I think they'll be able to pressure Kurt Warner into some turnovers, and I actually think they'll win without much trouble.
I actually feel better about the Steelers as the week goes on. I really like what they showed against San Diego, and I like that Mike Tomlin has shown that he'll be aggressive in his coaching, even if some of those decisions didn't work. I think in the past, the Steelers coaches sometimes were too cautious (including last year against Jacksonville). Also, Baltimore didn't show me much last week. I thought it was more of a case of Tennessee losing the game.
Picks:
Philadelphia 30, Arizona 14
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 13
Overall Record: 4-4
I actually feel better about the Steelers as the week goes on. I really like what they showed against San Diego, and I like that Mike Tomlin has shown that he'll be aggressive in his coaching, even if some of those decisions didn't work. I think in the past, the Steelers coaches sometimes were too cautious (including last year against Jacksonville). Also, Baltimore didn't show me much last week. I thought it was more of a case of Tennessee losing the game.
Picks:
Philadelphia 30, Arizona 14
Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 13
Overall Record: 4-4
Saturday, January 10, 2009
0 = 1?
Can officiating in the NFL get any worse? Since when could you snap the ball after the play clock had been at 0 for a full second, maybe even two! My only guess is Ray Lewis threatened to stab somebody. Obviously Tennessee put itself in a bad situation with those turnovers, but a mistake like that (Baltimore's subsequent completion was the key to their game-winning drive) by the officials is inexcusable. I can understand that certain judgment calls are difficult for officials, but how can you make a mistake like that with the clock? I bet next year, coaches will be allowed to challenge the play clock.
More thoughts on this game later.
More thoughts on this game later.
NFL Playoff Predictions, Divisional Round
I'm going to go with a different format in this week's predictions. Sometimes, I like to look at each game individually, like last week. But today, I want to take a look at the games as a whole.
The reason for this is, I'm really bothered by this week's games because I think the picks are way too obvious. I mean, doesn't it seem like we're destined for conference championship games of New York vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore? The first three teams seem like solid favorites, and Baltimore is the obvious upset pick because Tennessee seems like such a lame No. 1 seed.
But this bothers me. Way too easy and obvious. Nothing happens that easily. So, I think we'll see something crazy.
First, I'm going to switch on the Baltimore vs. Tennessee pick. It's just such an easy upset pick that I think it won't happen. The obvious upsets are usually the ones that don't happen. Plus, you do have to consider that the Ravens have a rookie QB starting, and historically, it just doesn't work. Baltimore won that game against Miami because of their defense. Flacco actually had a poor game -- he only completed nine of 23 passes. I think at some point against Tennessee, he's going to make a big mistake from which the Ravens can't recover.
Then, looking at the rest of the games, it seems like all the home teams should win without much trouble. But I really think we're going to see a really surprising result in one of these games, just like last year when the Giants beat the No. 1 seed Cowboys. Did anyone see that coming?
Thus, I'm going to go with the craziest pick, I'm just feeling it. I'm going with Arizona over Carolina. I'm not sure if anyone outside the state of Arizona thinks the Cardinals even have a shot against the Panthers, and really with good reason. Arizona has been dreadful in the eastern time zone, going 0-5, including a loss to the Panthers early in the season. The Panthers were also hot at the end of the season while the Cardinals floundered horribly. Everything points against the Cardinals, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I might be horribly off on this one, maybe everything will go plan and the Panthers will lose by 30, but I just see Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense putting up a lot of early points and forcing the Panthers to get away from their strength -- the running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Picks:
Tennessee 9, Baltimore 3 (That's right, no touchdowns)
Arizona 38, Carolina 27
NY Giants 23, Philadelphia 20, OT
Pittsburgh 18, San Diego 10 (See what I did there?)
Overall record: 2-2
The reason for this is, I'm really bothered by this week's games because I think the picks are way too obvious. I mean, doesn't it seem like we're destined for conference championship games of New York vs. Carolina and Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore? The first three teams seem like solid favorites, and Baltimore is the obvious upset pick because Tennessee seems like such a lame No. 1 seed.
But this bothers me. Way too easy and obvious. Nothing happens that easily. So, I think we'll see something crazy.
First, I'm going to switch on the Baltimore vs. Tennessee pick. It's just such an easy upset pick that I think it won't happen. The obvious upsets are usually the ones that don't happen. Plus, you do have to consider that the Ravens have a rookie QB starting, and historically, it just doesn't work. Baltimore won that game against Miami because of their defense. Flacco actually had a poor game -- he only completed nine of 23 passes. I think at some point against Tennessee, he's going to make a big mistake from which the Ravens can't recover.
Then, looking at the rest of the games, it seems like all the home teams should win without much trouble. But I really think we're going to see a really surprising result in one of these games, just like last year when the Giants beat the No. 1 seed Cowboys. Did anyone see that coming?
Thus, I'm going to go with the craziest pick, I'm just feeling it. I'm going with Arizona over Carolina. I'm not sure if anyone outside the state of Arizona thinks the Cardinals even have a shot against the Panthers, and really with good reason. Arizona has been dreadful in the eastern time zone, going 0-5, including a loss to the Panthers early in the season. The Panthers were also hot at the end of the season while the Cardinals floundered horribly. Everything points against the Cardinals, and that just doesn't sit well with me. I might be horribly off on this one, maybe everything will go plan and the Panthers will lose by 30, but I just see Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense putting up a lot of early points and forcing the Panthers to get away from their strength -- the running game with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.
Picks:
Tennessee 9, Baltimore 3 (That's right, no touchdowns)
Arizona 38, Carolina 27
NY Giants 23, Philadelphia 20, OT
Pittsburgh 18, San Diego 10 (See what I did there?)
Overall record: 2-2
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Overtime Solutions
Because of San Diego's overtime win against Indianapolis Saturday night -- in which the Colts never touched the ball in the extra quarter -- there has been the same talk we hear at least once a season about how the NFL's overtime format should be changed. It seems like most fans want it changed, but the NFL shockingly doesn't have the balls to fix it (just like the playoff system).
People who want to keep the status quo say "Well, your defense just needs to step up."
If you know me well enough, you probably could figure out that I hate answers like this. Why should one team's defense be held to that standard while the other isn't? Because of the flip of some stupid coin?
Also, lovers of the current system, consider this: What if baseball used the NFL's system? If a team scored in the top of the 10th, then that's it. Game over. There would be outrage, I gaurantee it.
"Why didn't the home team get a chance in the bottom of the 10th?!"
"Well, their pitcher should've just stepped it up."
It might seem silly to use that system in baseball, but there's practically no difference.
Thus, I offer three potential solutions to fix overtime in the NFL:
1.) Each team is guaranteed one possession. This is the easiest and most likely solution, and it also doesn't require much explanation. The team who wins the coin toss would still have a slight advantage (because of having the third and fifth and seventh chance of scoring), but that would be offset by the fact that the second team would have a slight advantage in knowing if they NEED to score on their first possession. Then, they can forego punting or kicking a field goal if they need a touchdown.
2.) First possession is determined by something non-arbitrary. This should be a good comprimise because it keeps the sudden death format intact. Supporters of the current system try to argue that the coin toss isn't as important as it really is. The truth is, everyone knows how important it is. Notice how you always see the players celebrate hardcore after winning the toss for overtime? You ever see that at the beginning of the game? No -- because it doesn't matter. Why can't we give the first possession to the team with more yards? Or less penalties? Or here's an interesting thought -- the team that scored last in regulation gets the ball second. That way, maybe we'll see more teams get aggressive when they're down by 3 with a minute to go. Instead of just playing it safe, kicking the field goal and waiting for OT, maybe they'll take some shots at the end zone. Also, if a team down by 7 scores a TD at the end of regulation, maybe they'll go for 2, knowing that they get the ball 2nd in OT. It would force teams to be more aggressive, and that's always more fun. ... We could also always use the XFL route of making two players race for the ball (the league's one and only good idea).
3.) First team to six points in OT wins. I actually read this idea in some sportswriter's column years ago, so I can't take full credit for it, but it's kind of interesting as another compromise. I have less sympathy for a team that gives up a touchdown on the first possession in overtime. I hate seeing games end in OT when the first team kicks a field goal from about 53 yards out. Boooooring. Now, if you can go down and make two field goals in the overtime period, then I think you earned it.
People who want to keep the status quo say "Well, your defense just needs to step up."
If you know me well enough, you probably could figure out that I hate answers like this. Why should one team's defense be held to that standard while the other isn't? Because of the flip of some stupid coin?
Also, lovers of the current system, consider this: What if baseball used the NFL's system? If a team scored in the top of the 10th, then that's it. Game over. There would be outrage, I gaurantee it.
"Why didn't the home team get a chance in the bottom of the 10th?!"
"Well, their pitcher should've just stepped it up."
It might seem silly to use that system in baseball, but there's practically no difference.
Thus, I offer three potential solutions to fix overtime in the NFL:
1.) Each team is guaranteed one possession. This is the easiest and most likely solution, and it also doesn't require much explanation. The team who wins the coin toss would still have a slight advantage (because of having the third and fifth and seventh chance of scoring), but that would be offset by the fact that the second team would have a slight advantage in knowing if they NEED to score on their first possession. Then, they can forego punting or kicking a field goal if they need a touchdown.
2.) First possession is determined by something non-arbitrary. This should be a good comprimise because it keeps the sudden death format intact. Supporters of the current system try to argue that the coin toss isn't as important as it really is. The truth is, everyone knows how important it is. Notice how you always see the players celebrate hardcore after winning the toss for overtime? You ever see that at the beginning of the game? No -- because it doesn't matter. Why can't we give the first possession to the team with more yards? Or less penalties? Or here's an interesting thought -- the team that scored last in regulation gets the ball second. That way, maybe we'll see more teams get aggressive when they're down by 3 with a minute to go. Instead of just playing it safe, kicking the field goal and waiting for OT, maybe they'll take some shots at the end zone. Also, if a team down by 7 scores a TD at the end of regulation, maybe they'll go for 2, knowing that they get the ball 2nd in OT. It would force teams to be more aggressive, and that's always more fun. ... We could also always use the XFL route of making two players race for the ball (the league's one and only good idea).
3.) First team to six points in OT wins. I actually read this idea in some sportswriter's column years ago, so I can't take full credit for it, but it's kind of interesting as another compromise. I have less sympathy for a team that gives up a touchdown on the first possession in overtime. I hate seeing games end in OT when the first team kicks a field goal from about 53 yards out. Boooooring. Now, if you can go down and make two field goals in the overtime period, then I think you earned it.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
NFL Playoff Picks, Wild Card Round, Part 2
As I'm watching the Chargers commit a bunch of turnovers that will probably make me 0-2 today, I guess I'll try to redeem myself with these picks:
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI
I've liked Baltimore in this game from the very beginning, but the Falcons' loss to the Cardinals makes me want to rethink the prediction because Baltimore, just like Atlanta, has a rookie QB starting in a playoff game: Joe Flacco. The difference is that Baltimore has a much better defense than Atlanta does. I really liked the way the Ravens responded after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Previous Ravens teams may have fallen apart after such an emotional loss, but this one kept it together to make the playoffs. Miami just strikes me as a lame team -- I really don't know how they managed to go 11-5. In fact, the Dolphins are rated 16th (!) in the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings, a personal favorite of mine. I expect the Ravens to keep the Wildcat at bay, just like they did earlier this season in a win over Miami, and Flacco won't be asked to do too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 16, Miami 6
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA
Is there more of a tease than the Philadelphia Eagles this year? It seems like you can say that about every year. Just when you think they might be one of the elite teams in the NFL (wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and NY Giants) they absolutely lay an egg (tie against Cincinnati, blowout against Baltimore, late-season loss to Washington). Now that the Eagles blew out Dallas, I think it's time for them to disappoint us all yet again. I really think Minnesota is going to shut down their offense in this game. The Eagles tend to have the most trouble when Andy Reid decides to get super pass-happy, and I just think there's a huge chance of that happening in this game. Minnesota has the league's top run defense, and I think Brian Westbrook will be rendered virtually ineffective, leading McNabb to throw about 40 passes while being hounded by Jared Allen the whole time. A low-scoring game allows the Vikings to concentrate on getting the ball to Adrian Peterson and out of Tarvaris Jackson's hands. I think Peterson runs for about 150 yards in his playoff debut, and then we'll be talking afterwards about whether McNabb and/or Reid will be coming back to Philly next year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 10
BALTIMORE AT MIAMI
I've liked Baltimore in this game from the very beginning, but the Falcons' loss to the Cardinals makes me want to rethink the prediction because Baltimore, just like Atlanta, has a rookie QB starting in a playoff game: Joe Flacco. The difference is that Baltimore has a much better defense than Atlanta does. I really liked the way the Ravens responded after losing to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Previous Ravens teams may have fallen apart after such an emotional loss, but this one kept it together to make the playoffs. Miami just strikes me as a lame team -- I really don't know how they managed to go 11-5. In fact, the Dolphins are rated 16th (!) in the Jeff Sagarin computer rankings, a personal favorite of mine. I expect the Ravens to keep the Wildcat at bay, just like they did earlier this season in a win over Miami, and Flacco won't be asked to do too much.
Prediction: Baltimore 16, Miami 6
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA
Is there more of a tease than the Philadelphia Eagles this year? It seems like you can say that about every year. Just when you think they might be one of the elite teams in the NFL (wins over Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and NY Giants) they absolutely lay an egg (tie against Cincinnati, blowout against Baltimore, late-season loss to Washington). Now that the Eagles blew out Dallas, I think it's time for them to disappoint us all yet again. I really think Minnesota is going to shut down their offense in this game. The Eagles tend to have the most trouble when Andy Reid decides to get super pass-happy, and I just think there's a huge chance of that happening in this game. Minnesota has the league's top run defense, and I think Brian Westbrook will be rendered virtually ineffective, leading McNabb to throw about 40 passes while being hounded by Jared Allen the whole time. A low-scoring game allows the Vikings to concentrate on getting the ball to Adrian Peterson and out of Tarvaris Jackson's hands. I think Peterson runs for about 150 yards in his playoff debut, and then we'll be talking afterwards about whether McNabb and/or Reid will be coming back to Philly next year.
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Philadelphia 10
NFL Playoff Picks, Wild Card Round, Pt. 1
ATLANTA AT ARIZONA
Is there anyone in outside the state of Arizona who actually believes the Cardinals will win this one? Since Atlanta's not an NFC West team, I'm not sure how Arizona possibly could win, because those are the only teams the Cardinals beat. Arizona is 3-7 against teams outside of the NFC West. 3-7! Those three wins came against respectable competition -- Buffalo, Dallas and Miami -- but here's another problem -- all those wins came before October 13. I think the only two things to worry about for Atlanta are that Michael Turner averages a mediocre 3.9 yards per carry on the road, and Matt Ryan is a rookie QB, and despite how good he was in the regular season, I normally don't like rookie QBs in the postseason -- remember how awful Big Ben was that one year? However, Ryan's stats have been better the second half of the season, so maybe he hasn't hit the rookie wall: Yards per attempt in September and October -- 6.37 and 7.72; November and December -- 9.25 and 8.07. ... And remember, it's the Cardinals.
Prediction: Atlanta 31, Arizona 20.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO
A few weeks ago, I was telling a lot of people that I liked the Colts to reach the Super Bowl, and probably play the Giants, creating the dreaded Archie Manning Bowl. But a funny thing happened since then -- the Colts became the chic Super Bowl sleeper pick, not that surprising considering that they've won nine in a row. About two or three weeks ago, I completely changed my mind on the Colts. I don't like that they haven't lost a game in so long. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's the teams that have won four or five in a row that scare me as opposed to the ones who have won nine in a row. Sounds crazy, I know, but there just comes a time when you run out of gas. The Chargers, on the other hand, fit the profile of a hot team I like -- four wins in a row. It might be harder to pick San Diego after hearing that Ladainian Tomlinson is battling an injury. As of now, he's going to try to play despite a torn tendon. But the dirty little secret is that less LT might be good for the Chargers. Darren Sproles, who is averging 5.4 yards per carry, is actually a better weapon for San Diego right now, in my opinion. Because of his size, he may not be effective over a long period of time, but in a one-game situation against a team who has a poor run defense (24th in the league), I like him a lot.
Prediction: San Diego 27 Indianapolis 23
I'll have my picks for tomorrow later.
Is there anyone in outside the state of Arizona who actually believes the Cardinals will win this one? Since Atlanta's not an NFC West team, I'm not sure how Arizona possibly could win, because those are the only teams the Cardinals beat. Arizona is 3-7 against teams outside of the NFC West. 3-7! Those three wins came against respectable competition -- Buffalo, Dallas and Miami -- but here's another problem -- all those wins came before October 13. I think the only two things to worry about for Atlanta are that Michael Turner averages a mediocre 3.9 yards per carry on the road, and Matt Ryan is a rookie QB, and despite how good he was in the regular season, I normally don't like rookie QBs in the postseason -- remember how awful Big Ben was that one year? However, Ryan's stats have been better the second half of the season, so maybe he hasn't hit the rookie wall: Yards per attempt in September and October -- 6.37 and 7.72; November and December -- 9.25 and 8.07. ... And remember, it's the Cardinals.
Prediction: Atlanta 31, Arizona 20.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO
A few weeks ago, I was telling a lot of people that I liked the Colts to reach the Super Bowl, and probably play the Giants, creating the dreaded Archie Manning Bowl. But a funny thing happened since then -- the Colts became the chic Super Bowl sleeper pick, not that surprising considering that they've won nine in a row. About two or three weeks ago, I completely changed my mind on the Colts. I don't like that they haven't lost a game in so long. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, it's the teams that have won four or five in a row that scare me as opposed to the ones who have won nine in a row. Sounds crazy, I know, but there just comes a time when you run out of gas. The Chargers, on the other hand, fit the profile of a hot team I like -- four wins in a row. It might be harder to pick San Diego after hearing that Ladainian Tomlinson is battling an injury. As of now, he's going to try to play despite a torn tendon. But the dirty little secret is that less LT might be good for the Chargers. Darren Sproles, who is averging 5.4 yards per carry, is actually a better weapon for San Diego right now, in my opinion. Because of his size, he may not be effective over a long period of time, but in a one-game situation against a team who has a poor run defense (24th in the league), I like him a lot.
Prediction: San Diego 27 Indianapolis 23
I'll have my picks for tomorrow later.
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